Ever since Rob Henderson introduced his concept of “luxury beliefs,” ideas that confer social status at little personal cost but often carry hidden societal downsides, I’ve been thinking there’s another dimension worth exploring: some beliefs are inherently cheap, easy to hold without significant risk, while others are costly, potentially harming us if we’re mistaken.
This isn’t entirely new; it’s related to Pascal’s Wager. Pascal argued it’s rational to believe in God because the reward (heaven) vastly outweighs the risk of being wrong. Take believing in God as an example. If you’re right, fantastic: eternal rewards, fulfillment, meaning. If you’re wrong, there’s usually nothing catastrophic. You likely still gained community, comfort, and moral grounding. It’s a belief with low downside and considerable upside.
Contrast this with being an AI doomer—someone convinced AI will inevitably doom humanity. Being correct here grants only a grim moment of vindication just before disaster, which hardly counts as a reward. But being wrong means enduring unnecessary anxiety, nihilism, and paralysis, wasting opportunities to engage meaningfully with the world. This is a costly belief, heavy on downside and light on reward.
Nietzsche famously declared “God is dead,” not in triumph but as a stark warning. He understood the massive implications of abandoning foundational beliefs, cautioning us to be mindful about what fills the void. This is often misunderstood as a celebration of secularization, but Nietzsche was deeply concerned that without carefully chosen beliefs, humanity risks sliding into nihilism and despair.
Hope and positivity, in contrast, rarely lead us astray. Research consistently shows optimistic outlooks correlate with better health, resilience, and success. Nihilism, meanwhile, often fosters passivity, apathy, and inaction—a reality underscored by psychological and sociological studies. Nihilistic beliefs rob us of the motivation to create, build, or meaningfully engage with life.
Interestingly, we’ve recently emerged from a period (roughly the 2010s) when nihilism and pessimism seemed to convey intellectual prestige. Perhaps it was a response to widespread disillusionment or perceived societal failures. But things are shifting again. Agency, hope, and positivity are reclaiming their traditional roles as markers of status and strength.
Here’s the bottom line: Favor beliefs that inspire action and provide meaning, even when absolute certainty is impossible. Blind optimism without action can be harmful—ignoring real problems is no better than nihilistic despair. But optimism combined with meaningful action always brings benefits. Embrace beliefs that push you forward, enrich your life, and reduce suffering.
In short, choose beliefs that make you better, not bitter.